How was the bus ride? Did everyone make it back okay? Roads were a bit bumpy? Fell asleep on the bus? Happy we took a point from an away match? …wait, it wasn’t an away match? Yep, let’s talk about this match with its preseason-size crowd for “New York City” FC in Connecticut against Houston Dynamo.
1. Attendance count (something I’ve never talked about before in these articles) was announced at 10,165, which is the lowest in the entire league this season. Compare that to the 19,000 for City’s the second home match this year on one of the coldest days of the season.
2. In his first start, Andraž Struna gets an assist. Props! Chris M said in our group chat that “Struna and [Ben] Sweat are like mirror images of each other”. Is this a prediction of a Struna goal, maybe?
3. That assist was for Maxi Moralez, WHO SCORED WITH HIS HEAD!!! Highlight of the match!
— Maximiliano (@mmoralezoficial) September 23, 2017
4. inonit.com has NYCFC at a 32.71% chance of a top two finish in the East, and FiveThirtyEight has City at 40%. The final four matches are against Montreal, Chicago, New England, and Columbus, respectively. As of this article’s post date, these four clubs are in 7th, 4th, 8th, and 5th, respectively, meaning they are either fighting to make the cut to playoffs or fighting to stay above the cut. And also Atlanta is currently three points behind with one game in hand., and both inonit and FiveThirtyEight have them with better chances at finishing top two finish (55.82% for inonit and 49% for 538).
Now, thinking like an analyst, even considering the news that came out early Tuesday afternoon about all but Maxime Chanot are now off the injury list, and Atlanta midfielder Miguel Almirón being ruled out for the next three weeks, I still think City may not have enough to keep the second seed. Atlanta looks to have the easier schedule even though they have yet another midweek match on Wednesday. But hey, at least City made playoffs! (Yay!…yeah…thanks, Atlanta…)
Should City fans be panicking right about now? Depends on what you want for the club. If you rather want the rest, then yes. If you think the club can benefit from playing the knockout round, then no. May I remind you: both teams that went all the way to the MLS Cup final had the knockout round match to play. In fact, only Colorado was the only team to skip the knockout round and make it to their respective conference final (had to go to penalties to get through). Plus, if City does have to play the knockout round match, inonit.com has NYC at a 60.22% chance of hosting it, which should be good.
But here’s the better question. Remember last week, when I said that there were 20 points that NYC could of had? Now it’s 22. If City had dropped much less than 22 points, would we be even having this conversation?
Anyway, wow…sorry for the long read here…this wasn’t like the other AfterFacts articles, my apologies. I guess I needed to get all of this off my chest. We will resume normal service next time. It’s off to Montreal on Wednesday and then to Chicago on Saturday.
They really took “Everywhere We Go” to a new level…